Republicans are facing an unexpected challenge in a state many believed was safely in their column.
A new Iowa Senate poll is raising eyebrows after showing Democrat Josh Turek holding a narrow lead over Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson in the race to replace retiring Sen. Joni Ernst. While the margin is small, the results are fueling concerns among conservatives who view Iowa as a critical state in the battle for control of the U.S. Senate.
With the 2026 midterm elections approaching, the Iowa race could become one of the most important contests in the country.
New Poll Shows Democrat Ahead
According to a newly released survey conducted by Global Strategy Group, Turek leads Hinson by two percentage points among likely Iowa voters.
The poll found:
- Josh Turek: 47%
- Ashley Hinson: 45%
Because the survey’s margin of error is approximately 3 points, the race remains statistically tied. Still, Democrats are celebrating the results as evidence they may have an opportunity to compete in a state that has steadily moved toward Republicans over the past decade.
The survey questioned 1,000 likely voters between June 8 and June 11.
Why Republicans Are Watching Closely
Iowa is no longer considered a traditional swing state.
President Donald Trump carried Iowa comfortably in all three of his presidential victories, including a double-digit win in 2024. Republicans currently control every statewide federal office and have built a strong advantage among working-class voters across the state.
That makes any sign of Democratic momentum noteworthy.
If Democrats can seriously compete in Iowa, it could signal trouble for Republicans in other Midwestern states as well.
Other Polls Show A Tight Race
The latest survey is not alone.
Several recent polls have pointed to an increasingly competitive contest:
- A Public Policy Polling survey found the race tied at 46% each.
- An Echelon Insights survey showed Turek ahead by one point.
- A March poll from GBAO showed Hinson leading by four points.
Taken together, the polling suggests neither candidate currently holds a decisive advantage.
Ashley Hinson Still Has Key Advantages
Despite recent polling, many political analysts continue to view Hinson as the favorite.
Hinson has represented Iowa in Congress since 2021 and has built a reputation as a reliable conservative voice. Prior to entering politics, she worked as a television journalist and later served in the Iowa House of Representatives.
Most importantly, she has secured President Trump’s endorsement.
For many Republican voters, Trump’s backing remains one of the most influential factors in a primary or general election.
Hinson also enters the general election with significant fundraising advantages and an established statewide political network.
Who Is Josh Turek?
Turek currently serves in the Iowa House of Representatives and has attempted to present himself as a moderate Democrat capable of appealing to independents and some Republican voters.
Before entering politics, he competed in four Paralympic Games as a wheelchair basketball athlete.
Democrats hope his personal story and moderate messaging will help them reconnect with voters who have shifted toward Republicans in recent years.
Why This Race Matters Nationally
The Iowa Senate race is about much more than one seat.
Republicans currently hold a 53-47 Senate majority. Democrats need several pickups if they hope to regain control of the chamber.
While most political observers still believe Republicans have the advantage nationally, Iowa is one of several races Democrats are targeting as they search for a path back to power.
Control of the Senate will determine:
- Judicial confirmations
- Cabinet appointments
- Federal spending priorities
- Border security legislation
- Tax policy
- Energy policy
That makes every competitive Senate race critically important.
Can Democrats Really Flip Iowa?
History suggests Republicans remain in a strong position.
The last Democrat to win a U.S. Senate race in Iowa was Tom Harkin in 2008. Since then, Republicans have dominated statewide elections and steadily expanded their margins.
Political forecasters still rate the race as Lean Republican, indicating Hinson remains the favorite despite recent polling.
However, analysts acknowledge the race is more competitive than many expected earlier this year.
The Bottom Line
Democrats are celebrating a new poll showing Josh Turek narrowly ahead of Ashley Hinson, but Republicans should not panic.
Iowa remains a Republican-leaning state, President Trump remains popular among the GOP base, and Hinson enters the race with major advantages in fundraising, experience, and national support.
Still, the latest polling serves as a reminder that Republicans cannot afford to take any race for granted.
With control of the Senate and much of President Trump’s legislative agenda potentially on the line, Iowa is shaping up to be one of the most closely watched races of the 2026 election season.