President Donald Trump’s endorsed candidate for Florida governor is still in the lead—but a newly released poll suggests Republicans may face a more competitive race than many expected in one of the nation’s strongest GOP states.
Congressman Byron Donalds holds a five-point advantage over Democrat David Jolly, according to a new University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab survey. While Republicans continue to dominate Florida politics, the latest numbers indicate Democrats believe they have an opportunity to make the race far closer than recent statewide elections.
Although early polling does not determine the final outcome, it offers an important snapshot of voter sentiment as both campaigns prepare for the 2026 election.
New Florida Poll Shows Tight Governor’s Race
The University of North Florida survey found Donalds leading Jolly 46% to 41% among likely Florida voters.
Another 6% of voters remain undecided, while 5% said they currently support another candidate.
The poll highlights what could become one of the most closely watched governor’s races in the country, even as Florida has continued shifting toward Republicans over the past decade.
Trump’s Endorsement Gives Donalds An Early Edge
Donalds, who represents Southwest Florida in Congress, entered the race with one major advantage: President Trump’s endorsement.
The congressman currently leads the Republican primary ahead of the August 18 election, while Jolly—a former Republican congressman who later switched parties—holds the advantage in the Democratic primary.
Political analysts say both candidates will likely spend the coming months working to unite their respective parties before turning their focus toward the general election.
Sean Freeder, director of the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab, said the race could become even more competitive depending on how well each candidate consolidates support after the primaries.
He noted that Donalds will need to bring Republican primary voters together, while Jolly must convince Democratic voters that his political views align with today’s Democratic Party.
Independent Voters Could Decide The Election
The survey showed an almost even split among Florida’s independent voters, who often play a decisive role in close statewide elections.
Donalds received 39% support from voters with no party affiliation, while Jolly earned 38%.
That razor-thin margin suggests both campaigns will likely invest heavily in winning over independent voters during the general election campaign.
Hispanic Voters Remain A Key Voting Bloc
One of the survey’s more surprising findings involved Hispanic voters.
According to the poll, Jolly led Donalds among Hispanic voters 53% to 35%.
That result differs from President Trump’s strong showing with many Latino voters during the 2024 presidential election and will likely receive close attention from both campaigns moving forward.
The poll surveyed 848 likely Florida voters between July 8 and July 17 using telephone interviews and online responses. It carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
Republicans Continue To Perform Well Statewide
Despite the tighter governor’s race, Republicans continue posting strong numbers in other statewide contests.
The same survey found Republican Senator Ashley Moody leading Democrat Alexander Vindman by 10 percentage points. Moody also held an 8-point advantage over Democratic state Representative Angie Nixon.
President Trump’s job approval numbers in Florida were nearly evenly divided, with 48% approving of his performance and 51% disapproving.
Economy And Cost Of Living Expected To Dominate Campaign
Political observers expect the campaign to center on issues that matter most to Florida families, including inflation, housing affordability, homeowners insurance, and the overall cost of living.
Freeder also suggested that artificial intelligence and large data center development could become campaign issues after critics questioned Donalds over investments connected to AI-related businesses.
However, economic issues are still expected to remain at the forefront for most voters.
Both Campaigns Push Back
Jolly’s campaign dismissed concerns over the poll, arguing that the survey does not accurately reflect the likely November electorate.
Donalds’ campaign, meanwhile, expressed confidence that Florida voters will continue supporting conservative leadership.
Chief strategist Ryan Smith said Floridians do not want policies that would increase taxes, raise living costs or weaken public safety. He argued that Donalds would continue Florida’s conservative direction by focusing on affordability, economic growth and public safety.
Other Polls Show A Competitive Contest
Recent polling has produced mixed results, though most surveys indicate a single-digit race.
A Change Research survey conducted in May showed Jolly leading Donalds 46% to 42%. That polling firm has ties to Democratic organizations.
Meanwhile, a Cherry Communications poll commissioned by the Florida Chamber of Commerce found Donalds ahead 47% to 39%.
A Stetson University survey also showed Donalds leading by 47% to 40%.
While the polling varies, most major election forecasting organizations—including Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball—continue to rate Florida as safely Republican.
Prediction Markets Still Favor Republicans
Political prediction markets also continue favoring Republicans.
As of Monday morning, traders on Kalshi gave Republicans roughly an 81% chance of winning the governor’s race, while Polymarket placed GOP odds at approximately 82%.
These markets combine real-money wagers from traders reacting to polling, fundraising, campaign developments and political news. While they provide insight into current expectations, they do not guarantee election results.
Florida Has Become A Republican Stronghold
Florida has undergone one of the nation’s most significant political transformations over the last decade.
President Trump expanded his victory margin in the Sunshine State from a narrow win in 2016 to a commanding double-digit victory in 2024.
Republicans have also built a voter registration advantage of more than 1.5 million voters, giving the GOP a significant structural edge heading into statewide elections.
Political observers credit that shift to several factors, including strong Republican gains among Hispanic voters, continued migration from more conservative states, and support for Florida’s conservative policies on education, immigration, election integrity and other issues.
Governor Ron DeSantis’ overwhelming reelection victory in 2022 further cemented Florida’s reputation as one of America’s premier Republican strongholds.
What Happens Next?
Although Democrats believe they have an opportunity to make the governor’s race more competitive, Republicans continue to hold substantial advantages in voter registration, recent election history and statewide organization.
Still, with national attention expected to focus on Florida once again, both parties are likely to invest millions of dollars into the race over the coming months.
For now, Byron Donalds remains the frontrunner, but the latest polling suggests Republicans cannot afford to take victory for granted as the campaign begins to intensify.