A new poll out of New Hampshire is turning heads across the political world and raising fresh questions about the future of the Democratic Party. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) has emerged as the early frontrunner in the race for the party’s potential 2028 presidential nomination, overtaking several better-known Democrats and leaving some longtime party leaders struggling to gain traction.
The latest University of New Hampshire Granite State Poll found Ocasio-Cortez leading the field with 22% support among likely Democratic primary voters. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg followed closely with 21%, while former Vice President Kamala Harris lagged well behind at 5%.
The survey marks a notable shift since February. Ocasio-Cortez gained seven percentage points, while both Kamala Harris and California Gov. Gavin Newsom lost support. The results suggest the New York congresswoman is gaining momentum among Democratic voters in one of the nation’s most closely watched early primary states.
For many political observers, the poll highlights a growing divide inside the Democratic Party. While some party leaders have argued Democrats should move toward the political center after recent election setbacks, the latest numbers indicate many Democratic primary voters continue to embrace progressive candidates.
The results are especially disappointing for Gov. Gavin Newsom, who has long been viewed as a potential White House contender. Instead of building momentum, the California governor saw his support fall seven points since the previous survey, leaving him with just 8% support.
Although Ocasio-Cortez has not announced whether she plans to run for president in 2028, she has consistently declined to rule out a White House campaign. She has also avoided closing the door on a possible Senate challenge against longtime Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer when he seeks reelection. Asked recently about her political future, Ocasio-Cortez said her goal is to “change the country.”
Pete Buttigieg remains one of the party’s strongest potential contenders. The former South Bend, Indiana, mayor and former transportation secretary has spent much of the past year traveling across the country to campaign for Democratic candidates, fueling continued speculation about his own presidential ambitions.
University of New Hampshire Survey Center Director Andrew Smith said the poll reveals important differences among Democratic voters.
According to Smith, nearly half of self-described socialists and roughly one-third of progressives support Ocasio-Cortez, while Buttigieg performs better among liberals and moderates.
Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly placed third with 9%, narrowly ahead of Newsom. Independent Sen. Bernie Sanders received 6% support. Sanders, who finished second in the Democratic presidential primaries in both 2016 and 2020, recently joked that another White House campaign is unlikely despite saying he still feels young.
Kamala Harris experienced one of the biggest declines in the survey. The former vice president, who became the Democratic nominee after President Joe Biden ended his reelection campaign in 2024, saw her support fall from 10% in February to just 5% in the latest poll.
While Harris continues to benefit from national name recognition and still performs well in some nationwide surveys, the New Hampshire results suggest Democratic voters in an early-voting state may be looking for a different direction as the 2028 presidential race begins to take shape.
Every other Democrat included in the survey received 2% or less, underscoring how quickly support appears to be concentrating around a handful of nationally recognized figures.
New Hampshire has traditionally played a major role in presidential politics, even after Democrats changed their primary calendar ahead of the 2024 election by moving South Carolina to the front of the nominating process. Party officials are expected to unveil another proposed primary calendar for the 2028 election cycle in the coming weeks.
On the Republican side, Vice President JD Vance holds an early advantage among likely GOP primary voters in New Hampshire.
The poll found Vance leading with 36% support, followed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 26%.
Sen. Rand Paul and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley each received 8%, while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis earned 6%. Every remaining Republican tested finished with 4% or less.
While the 2028 presidential election is still years away and early polling can change dramatically, the latest New Hampshire survey offers an early glimpse into the direction both parties may be heading. Republicans appear to be rallying behind Vice President JD Vance, while Democrats are showing increasing support for one of the party’s most progressive voices. If that trend continues, the battle over the Democratic Party’s future could become one of the biggest political stories leading into the next presidential election.