Yes
He can.
No
He can’t.
President Donald Trump’s approval rating has become a major political topic as Americans evaluate his performance in the White House and look ahead to the next major elections.
Presidential approval ratings can rise and fall dramatically depending on economic conditions, international events, domestic policy debates and the public’s overall confidence in the direction of the country.
For Trump, recent polling showing weaker approval numbers raises an important question: Are voters permanently changing their minds, or is the president experiencing a temporary political downturn?
The answer could have major implications for Republicans.
Although Trump will not personally be running in the midterm congressional elections, his popularity could influence voter enthusiasm, Republican turnout and competitive House and Senate races.
The economy will likely be central to what happens next.
Americans tend to judge presidents heavily on issues they experience in everyday life, including grocery bills, gasoline prices, housing expenses, employment opportunities, taxes and retirement savings. If households become more optimistic about their finances, public attitudes toward a president can improve.
Foreign policy, immigration, crime and major events in Washington could also affect Trump’s standing.
History provides numerous examples of presidents whose approval ratings recovered after difficult periods. It also provides examples of presidents who struggled to regain public support once voters became dissatisfied.
Polling itself is only a snapshot of opinion at a particular moment. Different polling organizations use different methodologies, samples and weighting systems, meaning individual surveys can produce different results. Looking at broader polling trends over time generally provides more context than relying on a single survey.
Trump has also demonstrated an unusual ability throughout his political career to maintain a highly committed base of supporters, even during periods of intense controversy and unfavorable polling.
The bigger question is whether he can improve his standing among independents and other voters who may be dissatisfied with his performance today.
There is still considerable time for political and economic conditions to change.