President Donald Trump is facing a surprisingly close political battle in South Carolina, where his endorsed candidate is locked in a virtual tie ahead of Tuesday’s Republican Senate runoff.
A final Trafalgar Group poll shows Sen. Darline Graham with 47.9% support and Rep. Ralph Norman, R-S.C., with 47.8%. Another 4.4% of Republican voters remain undecided, leaving the outcome wide open heading into Election Day.
The survey was conducted Aug. 22-24 among 1,031 respondents and has a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points.
For Trump, the South Carolina Senate race has become an important test of his influence with Republican voters. The president has endorsed Graham and personally campaigned on her behalf, but the latest polling suggests Norman remains very much in contention.
Trump Endorsement Put to the Test in South Carolina
Trump’s endorsement gives Graham one of the most valuable advantages available in a Republican primary, particularly in a conservative state such as South Carolina.
Yet the Trafalgar poll indicates Republican voters remain almost evenly divided.
Graham received 47.9% compared with Norman’s 47.8%, a difference of just one-tenth of a percentage point. With 4.4% still undecided, a relatively small number of voters could determine who advances as the Republican nominee.
The winner will secure the GOP nomination for a full six-year Senate term in the seat previously held by Graham’s late brother, Sen. Lindsey Graham.
Republican Senate Runoff Remains Difficult to Predict
There has been relatively little independent public polling of the South Carolina race, adding another layer of uncertainty heading into the runoff.
Graham finished first in the Republican primary two weeks ago but did not receive enough support to avoid a second election against Norman.
That gave Norman another opportunity to consolidate Republicans who preferred other candidates in the initial contest.
Now, the final Trafalgar survey suggests the two candidates are essentially tied.
For Republican voters, the choice pits Trump’s endorsed candidate against an experienced member of Congress who has developed his own following among South Carolina conservatives.
Graham Faces Scrutiny Over National Security Comment
Graham has faced additional scrutiny during the closing days of the campaign following a remark she made during a debate last week.
While discussing national security, Graham acknowledged that she was “not that informed on national security.”
The statement attracted attention as voters evaluate whether she has the experience necessary to represent South Carolina in the U.S. Senate.
National security, military preparedness and America’s role overseas remain major responsibilities for members of the Senate, giving opponents an opening to question Graham’s readiness for a full term.
Graham is a political newcomer and has served in the Senate only since mid-July.
She entered the position under unusual circumstances after being appointed to the seat previously held by her late brother. She then had to quickly adjust to serving in Washington while simultaneously preparing a campaign for a full six-year term.
Ralph Norman Reportedly Gaining Momentum
Norman, meanwhile, may be gaining ground at a critical moment.
Republican sources cited by NOTUS said the congressman appeared to have momentum heading into the runoff.
A separate survey obtained by the outlet and conducted by pollsters supporting Norman reportedly showed him holding a high-single-digit advantage late last week and over the weekend.
Because that survey was conducted by pollsters aligned with Norman, it should not be treated the same as independent polling. However, its findings add another element of uncertainty to an already unpredictable race.
One South Carolina Republican operative who was not involved with either runoff campaign told NOTUS that Tuesday’s election was the state’s “biggest black box in recent memory.”
Why the South Carolina Race Matters for Trump
The runoff has implications extending beyond South Carolina.
Trump has remained highly influential in Republican primaries, and candidates routinely seek his endorsement. That means closely watched races involving Trump-backed candidates can become informal measures of how much influence the president continues to hold with GOP voters.
A Graham victory would give Trump another successful endorsement and send his preferred candidate into the general election.
A Norman victory, however, would show that Republican voters can still break with Trump’s recommendation when they prefer another conservative candidate.
That does not necessarily make the contest a referendum on Trump. South Carolina voters are also weighing the candidates’ experience, records, policy positions and ability to represent the state.
But Trump’s decision to actively support Graham has undeniably raised the political stakes.
Undecided Republican Voters Could Decide the Race
With the Trafalgar poll showing the candidates separated by only 0.1 percentage point, turnout could ultimately determine the winner.
Runoff elections can be particularly unpredictable because participation is often different from a regular primary or general election. A campaign that successfully motivates its supporters to vote can gain an important advantage.
The remaining undecided voters could also prove crucial.
Graham has Trump’s endorsement and finished first in the initial Republican primary. Norman has congressional experience and is reportedly showing signs of late momentum.
Those competing advantages have turned what might otherwise have been a straightforward Republican Senate contest into a race with significant uncertainty.
By Tuesday night, South Carolina Republicans could provide an important answer about the direction of the GOP — and just how powerful Trump’s endorsement remains when two Republican candidates enter the final stretch virtually tied.