President Donald Trump’s administration is pushing for a major change to the U.S. Census that could affect congressional representation, federal funding and how America’s population is officially counted.
Under a proposal unveiled Wednesday, the 2030 Census would move toward counting U.S. citizens and lawful permanent residents while excluding immigrants living in the country illegally and certain noncitizens who are legally in the United States on a temporary basis.
If implemented, the change could have significant consequences for states with large immigrant populations.
It also sets the stage for another major debate over immigration, the Constitution and the purpose of the national census.
Trump Administration Seeks Major Census Overhaul
The U.S. Census Bureau submitted the proposal after Trump previously directed the federal government to develop a census that would exclude immigrants living illegally in the United States from certain population counts.
The next nationwide census will take place in 2030.
The proposal goes beyond people living in the country illegally. Certain immigrants who are lawfully present in the United States on a temporary basis could also be excluded under the new approach.
That distinction matters because the census has traditionally attempted to count people based largely on where they usually live rather than simply whether they are American citizens.
Changing that approach could alter official population totals across the country.
Why the 2030 Census Matters
The U.S. Census is conducted once every 10 years, but its consequences last throughout the following decade.
Census population figures help determine how the 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives are divided among the states.
The numbers are also used when congressional and state legislative districts are redrawn.
Beyond political representation, census information plays an important role in decisions involving federal programs and the distribution of government resources.
That means even relatively small changes in how residents are counted can have substantial long-term consequences.
States Could See Their Population Numbers Change
States and metropolitan areas with large noncitizen populations could be especially affected if the administration’s proposal ultimately takes effect.
Excluding some residents from census totals could reduce the population numbers used for certain government purposes.
That possibility has already drawn opposition from civil rights organizations and demographic experts.
Critics argue that a census excluding people who physically live in American communities could provide an incomplete picture of the country’s actual population.
Supporters of changing existing census policy have argued that citizenship and immigration status should play a larger role when determining the population used to distribute political representation.
The dispute could ultimately come down to how federal law and the Constitution are interpreted.
Race and Ethnicity Questions Could Also Change
The administration is proposing another potentially significant change involving demographic information collected by the Census Bureau.
Parts of the census questionnaire seeking information about race and ethnicity could be eliminated.
Such information has long been used by government agencies, researchers, businesses and civil rights organizations to study demographic changes across the United States.
Critics of removing those questions argue that the information is important for enforcing anti-discrimination laws and understanding changes within American communities.
The proposal raises a broader question about what information the federal government should collect when conducting the constitutionally required population count.
Critics Warn About Federal Funding
Opponents are particularly concerned about the potential impact on federal resources.
Meeta Anand, senior director of the census and data equity program at the Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights, warned that the changes could have far-reaching effects on communities with substantial immigrant populations.
Critics contend that lower official population totals could leave some states and cities with less political representation or federal assistance than they would receive under current census practices.
They also argue that businesses, governments and researchers depend on reliable census information when making important economic and investment decisions.
The administration’s proposal is therefore likely to face scrutiny extending well beyond immigration policy.
Trump Has Challenged Census Rules Before
This is not Trump’s first attempt to change how citizenship and immigration are addressed by the Census Bureau.
During his first administration, Trump sought to add a citizenship question to the 2020 Census.
That effort eventually reached the U.S. Supreme Court.
In 2019, the Supreme Court rejected the government’s stated explanation for adding the question, preventing the administration from moving forward with it at that time.
The new proposal takes a different approach by attempting to change who qualifies as part of the relevant census population.
That distinction could become important if the latest policy is challenged in federal court.
The 14th Amendment Could Be at Center of Legal Fight
One of the biggest questions involves the language of the U.S. Constitution.
Section 2 of the 14th Amendment says representatives should be apportioned among the states according to their respective numbers, counting the “whole number of persons in each State.”
That language could become central to any legal challenge involving the exclusion of noncitizens from congressional apportionment totals.
Opponents are expected to argue that the Constitution refers to “persons,” rather than citizens.
The administration’s position could depend in part on its interpretation of who should be considered a resident of a state for census and apportionment purposes.
If the proposal is finalized, federal courts may ultimately have to determine whether the new approach is constitutional.
Immigration Policy Remains a Major Focus
The census proposal also comes as the Trump administration continues pursuing broader changes involving immigration enforcement and government benefits.
The Justice Department recently warned states that billions of dollars in certain welfare funding could be at risk if state agencies fail to report immigrants they know are living in the country illegally.
The census proposal represents another significant front in that broader immigration-policy debate.
Unlike many immigration policies, however, census changes could have consequences lasting well beyond Trump’s current term because the 2030 Census will help determine political representation for the following decade.
What Happens Next?
The proposed census changes are not yet final.
The public will have 30 days to submit comments on the proposal.
Federal officials can review those comments and potentially revise the regulations before issuing a final rule.
Legal challenges are also possible.
Given the constitutional questions surrounding congressional apportionment and the enormous importance of census population figures, any final policy excluding large categories of noncitizens could face extensive litigation.
For Americans, the debate is about considerably more than how many people appear in a government database.
The final outcome could help determine how House seats are divided among the states, how legislative districts are drawn and how federal resources are distributed after the 2030 Census.
With billions of dollars and congressional representation potentially affected, the battle over who counts in America’s official population could become one of the most consequential census disputes in decades.