The battle for a U.S. Senate seat in Texas is becoming one of the most closely watched races of the 2026 midterm elections, with several recent polls showing Democrat James Talarico ahead of Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton.
A new ReconMR Texas Poll gives Talarico his largest advantage yet in that survey, placing him at 49% support compared with 43% for Paxton.
That six-point difference represents a shift from July, when Talarico led 47% to 43%. In June, ReconMR had the candidates tied at 46%.
With early voting approaching, the numbers are attracting attention because Texas has been a Republican stronghold in statewide elections for more than three decades.
Talarico Expands Lead in Latest Texas Senate Poll
ReconMR’s latest survey found Talarico leading Paxton 49% to 43% among likely Texas voters.
The polling organization describes itself as a nonpartisan public-opinion research initiative conducted by ReconMR and the Siena Research Institute.
The movement in its surveys has been gradual but noticeable.
Talarico and Paxton were tied in June. Talarico moved ahead by four points in July, and his advantage reached six points in the latest September survey.
Still, polls represent snapshots of voter opinion rather than election results, and margins can change considerably before ballots are counted.
Independent Voters Are an Important Part of the Story
One of the most closely watched groups in the contest is independent voters.
ReconMR’s September results showed particularly strong support for Talarico among independents, helping contribute to his overall advantage.
Independent voters could receive even greater attention as both campaigns compete for Texans who do not consistently vote along party lines.
The trend is especially significant because Republicans have dominated statewide elections in Texas for decades.
No Democrat has won statewide office in Texas since 1994, making any competitive statewide contest notable.
Older Texans Give Paxton Better News
While the overall polling has produced encouraging numbers for Talarico, voters age 50 and older tell a different story.
An AARP Texas poll released in September showed Talarico leading among all likely voters, 48% to 44%.
Among voters 50 and older, however, Paxton held a substantial advantage.
Paxton received 53% support from the 50-plus electorate compared with 40% for Talarico.
That difference could prove important because older Texans are among the state’s most motivated voters.
AARP found that 84% of Texas voters age 50 and older described themselves as extremely motivated to vote. Among voters younger than 50, that figure was 70%.
The survey also found that Social Security, health care expenses and rising everyday costs ranked among the major concerns for older voters.
Why Voters Over 50 Could Matter
The 50-plus vote could become a major focus during the closing weeks of the campaign.
Older voters made up nearly 55% of ballots cast in the 2026 Texas Democratic primary and 78% of ballots in the Republican primary, according to AARP.
Their high turnout rates mean both campaigns have an incentive to focus on economic and retirement-related issues that directly affect older households.
Those concerns include the cost of groceries, health care, Social Security and household expenses.
The contrast is striking: Talarico currently leads in several statewide surveys, yet Paxton retains a clear advantage among older Texans in the AARP polling.
That creates competing political forces heading toward Election Day.
Paxton Won Trump’s Backing in Republican Primary
The Senate race also has a direct connection to President Donald Trump.
Paxton faced longtime Republican Sen. John Cornyn in the GOP primary runoff earlier this year.
Trump endorsed Paxton shortly before the May runoff election, and Paxton went on to defeat Cornyn and secure the Republican nomination.
Talarico earned the Democratic nomination after defeating U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the March primary.
The result established a general-election contest between two candidates representing sharply different political coalitions.
Texas’ Republican Winning Streak Faces Another Test
Texas remains one of the country’s most important Republican states.
Democrats have repeatedly attempted to break the GOP’s statewide winning streak but have not won a statewide office since 1994.
That history makes the current Senate polling particularly noteworthy.
It does not guarantee that Texas is changing parties, nor does it determine how the November election will end.
It does indicate, however, that Republicans are facing a competitive Senate contest in a state where statewide GOP victories have long been the norm.
Multiple Polls Have Shown a Competitive Race
ReconMR is not the only organization showing a close contest.
Recent surveys from several polling organizations have placed Talarico ahead by varying margins, while some have shown the race much tighter.
Those differences highlight an important point for voters: individual polls use different methodologies, samples and assumptions about who is likely to vote.
For that reason, no single survey should be treated as a prediction of the final result.
The broader polling picture is more useful for measuring whether a race appears competitive and how different voter groups are moving.
Early Voting Is Getting Closer
Texas voters will begin casting early ballots soon.
According to the Texas Secretary of State, the deadline to register for the November general election is Monday, October 5.
Early in-person voting begins Monday, October 19.
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
That leaves both campaigns a limited period to persuade undecided voters and motivate their supporters.
The Bottom Line
The Texas Senate contest has become increasingly important heading into the final stretch of the 2026 midterms.
James Talarico currently leads Ken Paxton 49% to 43% in the latest ReconMR Texas Poll, while other surveys also show a competitive race.
Paxton, meanwhile, maintains an important advantage among Texans age 50 and older in AARP’s polling — a group that reports particularly high motivation to participate in the election.
For Republicans, the question is whether Paxton can strengthen his support beyond the party’s traditional base while maintaining his advantage among older voters.
For Democrats, the challenge is whether Talarico can convert favorable polling into enough actual votes to overcome more than three decades of Republican dominance in Texas statewide elections.
With early voting beginning October 19, polling will soon give way to the only numbers that ultimately determine the race: ballots cast by Texas voters.