Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is facing a surprising political challenge in her own backyard as a new poll reveals that her preferred candidate is trailing in the race to replace her in Congress.
Despite Pelosi’s endorsement, fundraising connections, and decades of influence within the Democratic Party, San Francisco voters appear increasingly willing to chart their own course.
The development raises fresh questions about whether the longtime Democratic leader still has the political influence needed to determine who succeeds her.
And with the November midterm elections approaching, the latest numbers suggest Pelosi’s choice could be in serious trouble.
Pelosi’s Candidate Trails In New Poll
A new survey from the University of Southern California’s Democracy and Fair Elections Lab shows California state Sen. Scott Wiener leading San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan in the contest for California’s 11th Congressional District.
Wiener received 47% support among likely voters, while Chan secured 41%, giving Wiener a six-point advantage.
Another 9% of voters remained undecided.
The poll surveyed 454 likely voters from October 16 through October 19 and had a margin of error of 4.6 percentage points.
Although Wiener holds the lead, the race remains statistically close, meaning either candidate could ultimately emerge victorious.
Nevertheless, the results present a challenge for Pelosi, who has made electing Chan a major political priority.
Pelosi’s Powerful Endorsement Falls Short Of First Place
Pelosi has spent months working to help Chan win the congressional seat she held for nearly four decades.
The former House speaker publicly endorsed Chan, participated in campaign events, and used her extensive political connections to help raise money.
Her involvement was expected to provide Chan with a significant advantage in a district where Pelosi remains a prominent Democratic figure.
However, the latest polling indicates that Pelosi’s support has not been enough to put Chan ahead.
The survey found that Pelosi maintains an approval rating of approximately 55% among local voters.
Yet many of those same voters support Wiener rather than Pelosi’s preferred successor.
That finding highlights an important distinction between respecting a longtime political leader and allowing that leader to determine the next representative.
For Pelosi, the outcome could become a closely watched test of her remaining political influence.
Democrats Face Growing Internal Divisions
The contest has also revealed disagreements within San Francisco’s Democratic political establishment.
Both candidates are Democrats, but they appeal to different groups of voters.
Chan has emphasized affordable housing, workers’ rights, and economic concerns affecting working-class residents.
She has attracted support from labor organizations and progressive political activists.
Wiener, meanwhile, has developed a reputation for supporting housing development and other liberal legislative priorities during his years in the California Legislature.
His campaign has drawn considerable financial support and backing from voters who favor his approach to housing policy.
According to the latest poll, Wiener performs particularly well among moderate and somewhat liberal voters.
Chan has stronger support among working-class voters and those identifying as very liberal.
These differences demonstrate that even in one of America’s most Democratic congressional districts, voters remain divided over the direction of their political leadership.
Pelosi’s Political Influence Faces A Major Test
Pelosi has been one of the Democratic Party’s most influential figures for decades.
First elected to Congress in 1987, she eventually became the first woman to serve as speaker of the House.
She also played a central role in major legislative battles and repeatedly clashed with President Donald Trump over federal policy.
Her influence extended far beyond Capitol Hill, with a powerful fundraising network and longstanding relationships throughout Democratic politics.
But her retirement has created a new political reality in San Francisco.
For the first time in nearly 40 years, voters are preparing to select a congressional representative without Pelosi appearing on the ballot.
Instead of stepping away from the political process, Pelosi has devoted considerable attention to helping Chan succeed her.
That involvement makes the election particularly significant.
If Chan loses, it would be a notable setback for Pelosi’s effort to shape the district’s political future.
A Chan victory, on the other hand, would demonstrate that the former speaker can still mobilize enough support to influence an important Democratic election.
Fundraising Advantage Adds Another Challenge
Money has become another major factor in the race.
Wiener has enjoyed a fundraising advantage of more than $3 million over Chan, giving his campaign substantial resources to reach voters.
Pelosi has attempted to help close that gap by organizing fundraising activities and encouraging Democratic donors to support Chan.
Despite those efforts, Wiener has maintained his financial advantage.
Chan has focused on grassroots organizing, labor support, and outreach to residents concerned about affordability and economic pressures.
Both campaigns are now competing for the remaining undecided voters ahead of Election Day.
With only days remaining before the November 3 election, turnout could prove decisive.
What This Means For The 2026 Midterm Elections
The race for Pelosi’s former congressional seat is unusual because both remaining candidates are Democrats.
Republicans are not competing to flip the seat in this particular contest.
Instead, the election will determine which wing of the Democratic Party represents San Francisco in Washington.
That distinction matters because the result will not directly change which political party controls the district.
However, the outcome could have broader implications for Democratic leadership and the political influence of established party figures.
Pelosi has spent decades helping shape Democratic strategy, fundraising, and congressional leadership.
The possibility that her preferred successor could lose despite that support demonstrates the limits of even a powerful politician’s influence over voters.
For those watching the changing political landscape, the contest offers another example of how established leadership can face resistance within its own party.
Will San Francisco Voters Reject Pelosi’s Pick?
With Election Day approaching, Pelosi’s preferred successor faces an uphill challenge, although the race remains close enough for either candidate to win.
The latest poll shows Wiener ahead, but undecided voters and election turnout could still change the outcome.
What is already clear is that Pelosi’s endorsement has not guaranteed victory.
After nearly four decades representing San Francisco, the former House speaker is discovering that her political popularity does not automatically translate into support for her chosen replacement.
The November 3 election will ultimately determine whether Pelosi can help deliver one final political victory in her longtime district or whether Democratic voters choose to move in a different direction.