President Donald Trump’s job approval has dipped in Texas, one of the most conservative states in the nation, according to a new poll. While his base remains loyal, the data reveals warning signs for Republicans heading into the 2026 midterms.
Texas: Longtime Republican Stronghold Shows Cracks
Texas hasn’t voted Democrat in a presidential election since 1976, and President Trump won the Lone Star State decisively in 2024 by nearly 14 points. But a recent statewide poll from the Texas Politics Project shows Trump’s approval rating turning negative in the very heart of red America.
The poll found that 51% of Texans disapprove of President Trump’s performance, compared to just 44% who approve. This marks the first time in his second term that disapproval has overtaken support in the state.
Border Security Still a Bright Spot for Trump in Texas
Despite the dip, Trump’s strong stance on border security continues to resonate with Texas voters. The poll found 51% of respondents approve of his handling of border issues, compared to 41% who disapprove—a solid margin in a state directly impacted by illegal immigration.
This issue remains one of the core pillars of Trump’s political brand, especially in southern states like Texas, where border security is a top priority for conservative voters.
Economic Concerns Emerge as a Key Weakness
However, Trump’s economic approval in Texas has taken a hit. Just 39% of voters approve of the president’s handling of the economy, while 51% disapprove, according to the poll.
This trend reflects national data, where rising inflation, interest rates, and economic uncertainty have led to broader dissatisfaction—even among some traditional Republican-leaning independents.
Texas Republicans Still Stand Strong with Trump
Among Republican voters in Texas, Trump remains overwhelmingly popular. The poll shows 87% of Texas Republicans approve of his job performance, with only a small minority expressing disapproval.
When it comes to the economy specifically, 74% of Republicans give Trump positive marks. While slightly lower than the 90% approval he enjoyed during his first term, the data shows continued loyalty from his conservative base.
Nationwide Polling Mirrors Texas Trends
Nationally, President Trump is facing similar headwinds. According to Gallup, his net approval rating sits at -17 as of June 2025. Other polls show comparable results:
- American Research Group: -21 net approval
- Reuters/Ipsos: -16 net approval
- Fox News: -8 net approval
- Morning Consult: -8 net approval
However, conservative-leaning pollsters like Trafalgar Group (+10) and InsiderAdvantage (+10) still show the president in positive territory, reinforcing the political divide across polling firms.
Senate 2026: Can Democrats Compete in Trump Territory?
With Republicans holding a narrow 53-47 majority in the Senate, Democrats are hunting for possible flips—even in deep-red states like Texas. While most political analysts still rank Texas as “Solid Republican,” any further erosion in Trump’s popularity could turn the 2026 Senate race into one to watch.
Democrats face a steep climb. Their best chances to flip seats are in GOP-held states like North Carolina and Maine, but unless they win in double-digit Trump states such as Texas, Florida, or Ohio, a path to Senate control remains narrow.
Outlook: Will Texas Stay Red in 2026?
For now, Trump remains the dominant force in Texas Republican politics. But signs of voter fatigue—especially on economic issues—are giving Democrats talking points as they gear up for the next cycle.
Still, with Texas Republicans firmly behind Trump and the state’s conservative values intact, flipping the Lone Star State remains a longshot for the left.
📊 Texas Poll Details
- Conducted by: Texas Politics Project
- Survey Dates: June 6–16, 2025
- Sample Size: 1,331 registered voters
- Margin of Error: ±2.83 percentage points