California Republican gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton is facing a difficult final stretch in his campaign, with a new statewide poll showing Democrat Xavier Becerra expanding his advantage just weeks before Election Day.
Hilton, who has been endorsed by President Donald Trump, trails Becerra by 25 percentage points among likely voters in the latest UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll.
The survey found 58% of likely California voters supporting Becerra, compared with 33% backing Hilton. The poll surveyed 4,512 likely voters between Sept. 15 and Sept. 20.
The numbers represent another challenge for Hilton as he attempts to break through in a state where Democrats have enjoyed a significant political advantage for years.
Becerra Expands Lead Over Hilton
Becerra’s latest advantage is larger than the one recorded in the Berkeley IGS survey released in August.
That earlier poll showed Becerra receiving 55% support while Hilton received 37%, an 18-point difference. The latest survey puts the gap at 25 points.
Becerra previously served as California attorney general and later as secretary of Health and Human Services under former President Joe Biden.
Hilton, meanwhile, has attempted to build his campaign around dissatisfaction with California’s cost of living, taxes, energy prices and years of Democratic control in Sacramento.
Despite those issues resonating with many voters, the latest polling suggests Hilton has yet to turn that frustration into enough support to substantially narrow the race.
Cost of Living Is California Voters’ Top Concern
The poll contains one potentially important opening for Hilton: Californians remain deeply concerned about affordability.
Forty-four percent of likely voters named the high cost of living as one of the issues they most want California’s next governor to address, making it the top concern in the Berkeley survey.
Housing prices, gasoline, utilities, food and other household expenses have placed considerable pressure on families across the state.
Hilton has repeatedly focused on those concerns during his campaign.
His proposals have included efforts aimed at bringing gasoline prices down to $3 per gallon and eliminating California state income taxes for residents earning less than $150,000.
Hilton has argued that voters frustrated with the direction of the state should consider changing which party controls the governor’s office.
“Californians are desperate for change and we have momentum,” Hilton told The California Post, according to the original report.
He also criticized Becerra as a career politician and argued that electing another Democrat would continue years of one-party control in Sacramento.
Trump Is Playing a Major Role in California Race
The campaign is not being fought solely over state issues.
President Trump’s administration is also a significant factor for many California voters.
The Berkeley poll found 37% of likely voters identifying opposition to Trump administration policies as one of their highest priorities, placing the issue behind only California’s high cost of living.
That creates a complicated political environment for Hilton.
Trump’s endorsement can help strengthen Hilton’s support among Republican voters, but Democrats hold a substantial registration advantage in California, and opposition to the Trump administration remains an important motivation among many voters in the state.
Hilton therefore faces the challenge of energizing Republicans while also attracting enough independents and Democratic crossover voters to make the contest more competitive.
Independent Voters Present Another Challenge
The latest numbers suggest Hilton still has work to do among voters who do not identify with either major political party.
Becerra currently receives support from more than half of likely independent voters, according to the Berkeley survey, while Hilton attracts roughly 30%.
Republican strategist Tim Rosales told the Los Angeles Times that party affiliation remains one of Hilton’s biggest obstacles.
“The difficult thing is that Steve Hilton’s a Republican in California,” Rosales said.
He argued that Democratic voters may recognize California’s affordability problems while still believing another Democrat should be given the opportunity to address them.
That dynamic could make persuading independents especially important for Hilton during the closing weeks of the campaign.
Another Major Poll Shows Becerra Ahead
The Berkeley survey is not an isolated result.
A separate September poll from the Public Policy Institute of California found Becerra leading Hilton 60% to 38% among likely voters.
That survey also demonstrated how important affordability has become in the election.
According to PPIC, 65% of likely voters said the candidates’ positions on affordability and the cost of living were “very important” in determining their vote. Another 30% described the issue as “somewhat important.”
The concern cuts across party lines.
PPIC found that 69% of Democrats, 65% of Republicans and 59% of independents considered the candidates’ positions on affordability very important.
Those numbers underline an unusual feature of the race: voters from both parties appear deeply concerned about California’s cost of living, even as the gubernatorial polling remains sharply divided along partisan lines.
Hilton Still Has an Opportunity to Make His Case
Despite the polling deficit, the campaign is not over.
California voters will choose their next governor on Nov. 3, giving both candidates several more weeks to make their case.
Hilton’s campaign will likely continue emphasizing gasoline prices, taxes, housing, energy costs and government spending — issues he hopes can persuade voters who are unhappy with California’s current direction.
Becerra, meanwhile, enters the closing stretch with a substantial polling advantage and strong support among Democrats.
A major moment is scheduled for Sept. 30, when Becerra and Hilton are expected to face each other in a nationally televised CNN debate in Burbank.
The debate could give Hilton one of his most visible opportunities to challenge Becerra directly and explain why voters should consider putting a Republican back in the governor’s office.
California Governor’s Race Enters Final Stretch
For now, the available polling paints a consistent picture.
Berkeley IGS has Becerra ahead 58% to 33%, while PPIC’s September survey measured the contest at 60% to 38%.
At the same time, both surveys highlight intense concern about California’s affordability problems.
That leaves Hilton with a clear campaign argument but a sizable electoral challenge: convince enough Californians that their frustration with the state’s cost of living should translate into a change in political leadership.
Whether that message can significantly narrow the polling gap will become clearer as the candidates debate and voters make their final decisions ahead of the Nov. 3 election.