President Donald Trump scored another political victory in South Carolina after his endorsed candidate won a closely watched Republican Senate runoff. But Democrats are pointing to the surprisingly narrow margin and arguing that the results could contain a warning for the president heading into the midterm elections.
Democratic strategist Chuck Rocha said he expected Sen. Darline Graham to defeat Rep. Ralph Norman after Trump threw his support behind her. What surprised him was how close the contest became.
Graham defeated Norman by just under five percentage points, earning the Republican nomination for the U.S. Senate seat previously held by her late brother, Sen. Lindsey Graham.
For Republicans, the victory provides another example of Trump’s endorsement helping propel a preferred candidate across the finish line.
Democrats, however, are looking closely at the numbers.
Democratic Strategist Questions Trump’s Margin
During an appearance Wednesday on NewsNation’s “Cuomo,” Rocha said he expected Graham to win but anticipated a substantially larger margin after Trump became directly involved in the race.
“I didn’t think it would be this close,” Rocha said.
Rocha, a veteran Democratic strategist who worked with Sen. Bernie Sanders during his presidential campaigns, did not go so far as to predict Democrats would capture the South Carolina Senate seat in November.
Instead, he argued that the runoff raises questions about how much influence Trump’s endorsement currently carries in Republican primary contests.
“Something’s going on when Donald Trump can only deliver 52 percent,” Rocha told host Chris Cuomo.
Rocha acknowledged that Graham faced an unusual political situation. She had been campaigning for only a short period and entered the race following the death of her brother.
Even with those circumstances, Rocha argued that a Trump-backed candidate in a Republican primary should have performed better.
“Donald Trump should be getting 70, 80, 90 percent in a Republican primary,” he said.
That is Rocha’s political interpretation of the results, however, and Republicans are drawing a dramatically different conclusion.
Trump’s candidate won.
Trump Personally Campaigned For Graham
Trump did considerably more than issue an endorsement.
The president traveled to Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, ahead of the runoff and appeared alongside Graham at a campaign rally designed to energize Republican voters.
Trump urged supporters to approach the election as though they were voting for him personally.
“What I want you to do is pretend, please, that I’m on the ballot,” Trump told the crowd.
The results around Myrtle Beach were striking.
Graham defeated Norman by more than 46 percentage points in Horry County, which includes Myrtle Beach. She also won 34 of South Carolina’s 46 counties.
Those numbers give Republicans a powerful response to Democratic claims that the election exposed weakness for Trump.
The president backed a relatively inexperienced candidate, traveled to South Carolina on her behalf and watched her defeat an established Republican congressman.
Republicans Say The Results Show Trump’s Strength
Conservative talk radio host Mark Davis, who appeared with Rocha on “Cuomo,” offered a sharply different assessment of the runoff.
Davis argued that Graham began the race as a significant underdog because South Carolina voters had little familiarity with her when she entered the contest.
That made Trump’s ability to help her win even more significant, according to Davis.
“For Trump to endorse her and bring her across the finish line is a major, major bit of evidence to the strength of his endorsement,” he said.
From that perspective, the runoff wasn’t a warning for Trump at all.
It was another demonstration that the president remains capable of influencing Republican elections.
Graham’s victory also came despite a difficult moment during a recent Republican debate, when she faced criticism over her response to a foreign-policy question involving Taiwan and the South China Sea.
Despite the controversy, she survived the runoff and advanced to November.
More Than 369,000 Republicans Cast Ballots
Turnout provides additional context for interpreting the results.
More than 369,000 Republicans participated in the runoff, according to South Carolina election data.
That represented roughly 12 percent of the state’s more than 3 million registered voters.
Primary and runoff elections can attract a substantially different electorate from general elections, making it difficult to use one Republican contest as a direct prediction of what will happen statewide in November.
There were also signs of Republican dissatisfaction before Darline Graham entered the picture.
In the earlier GOP primary, more than 40 percent of voters supported a candidate other than Lindsey Graham.
The longtime senator died a little more than a month later following an aortic dissection, dramatically reshaping the political landscape and setting up the unusual contest that followed.
Those circumstances make the runoff particularly difficult to compare with a conventional Republican primary.
Democrats See An Opening — But Republicans Remain Favored
Graham will now face Democratic nominee Annie Andrews in the general election.
Some Democrats have suggested that the close Republican runoff could indicate an opportunity for their party.
The numbers, however, continue to present Democrats with a difficult challenge.
Decision Desk HQ gave the Republican an 81 percent chance of winning the general election as of Tuesday, making Graham the clear favorite despite the competitive runoff.
Even Rocha stopped short of predicting an Andrews victory.
His argument was narrower: Republicans should pay attention to the percentage of GOP voters who were unwilling to support Trump’s endorsed candidate.
Whether that concern translates into trouble for Republicans in November remains uncertain.
What The South Carolina Results Mean For Trump
The disagreement surrounding South Carolina illustrates a much larger question facing both parties ahead of the midterms: How powerful is a Trump endorsement?
Democrats are likely to highlight races where Trump’s preferred candidates underperform expectations, arguing that Republican voters may be becoming less responsive to the president’s endorsements.
Republicans can make an equally straightforward argument.
Trump endorsed Graham.
Trump traveled to South Carolina to campaign for her.
Trump asked his supporters to vote as though he personally were on the ballot.
And when the votes were counted, Graham won.
That doesn’t mean every Republican voter followed Trump’s recommendation. The narrow margin makes that clear.
But it also doesn’t establish that Trump’s political influence is disappearing.
Instead, South Carolina provides both parties with evidence they can use to make competing arguments heading into November.
The Bigger Test Comes In November
The general election will provide a more consequential test.
Trump has repeatedly emphasized the importance of Republican turnout in the midterms, and his ability to motivate voters when his own name is not on the ballot could play an important role in determining control of Congress.
South Carolina alone cannot answer that question.
But the runoff offers an early glimpse at the political battle taking shape.
Democrats see a Trump-endorsed candidate who received only slightly more than half of the Republican vote.
Republicans see a little-known candidate who gained Trump’s support and defeated an established member of Congress.
Both interpretations will likely become part of the midterm narrative.
For now, Democrats may be warning that Trump’s political grip is showing signs of weakness.
Republicans have a simpler response: His candidate won.