As the Washington Post’s Perry Bacon Jr. Explains, “First, there is often a turnout gap that favors the party that doesn’t control the White House,” he writes. “Off-year elections have much lower turnout than presidential ones, but typically more people from the party that doesn’t control the presidency are motivated to vote in opposition to whatever the incumbent president is doing.” The second reason for thermostatic backlash is that some voters switch from the president’s party.
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Republications are slated to win back the House and the Senate on the November 8 midterm elections, according to political analysts. Generally, the party that is not in the White House does well at the midterms.
Biden’s falling approval rating, now at 41.8%, does not loom well for the Democrat Party. The performance of the President largely impacts the midterm elections.
Moreover, 28 incumbent Democrat House representatives are not seeking re-election, as opposed to 13 incumbent Republicans. This is more bad news for Democrats as incumbents have a better chance at regaining their seats.