The Democratic Party is already tearing itself apart ahead of the 2028 presidential election — and the fight could get ugly. On one side is California Governor Gavin Newsom, the slick blue-state leader whose policies have fueled mass exodus and soaring crime. On the other is radical New York Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the socialist firebrand who wants to drag the party even further left.
Newsom Holds Slim Lead Over AOC in Early Betting Odds
According to online prediction market Polymarket, Newsom currently holds a narrow 4-point lead over AOC in early betting odds for the Democratic nomination. While neither has officially announced a run, both are actively boosting their national profile — Newsom with polished media appearances, and AOC with Instagram-heavy “activism” tours alongside socialist Senator Bernie Sanders.
Democrats Still Divided After Trump’s 2024 Victory
The party is still reeling from Kamala Harris’s crushing loss to President Donald Trump in 2024. That defeat exposed deep fractures: moderates accuse Harris of alienating swing voters, while progressives insist she wasn’t radical enough. Whoever wins in 2028 will have to unite a bitterly divided party while facing a Republican base that’s more energized than ever.
Odds and Political Maneuvering
Polymarket gives Newsom a 19% chance of clinching the nomination, compared to AOC’s 15%. In a 2025 interview, Newsom hinted that a run was “a path I could see unfold,” while stopping short of a commitment. AOC, meanwhile, dodged a direct answer in an April interview, instead launching into attacks on Republicans over Medicaid and immigration policies — an early sign she’s testing national talking points.
Other Democrats Eyeing the Race
Former Biden Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg is sitting at 12% odds, while Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear trails at just 6%. Analysts warn that these numbers are mostly about name recognition — the real race won’t heat up until after the 2026 midterms. Still, names like Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, New Jersey Senator Cory Booker, and Arizona Senator Ruben Gallego could jump in, adding to the chaos.
A Party Headed for a Showdown
With Republicans holding momentum under President Trump and the conservative movement growing stronger, Democrats may be headed for a bruising internal war that could leave them vulnerable before the general election even begins.
If Newsom and AOC go head-to-head, it won’t just be a campaign — it will be a fight for the soul of the Democratic Party. And for conservatives watching from the sidelines, it could be the political gift that keeps on giving.