Yes
He is.
No
He isn’t.
Texas is once again at the center of the national political spotlight as Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico compete for a U.S. Senate seat in the 2026 midterm elections.
President Donald Trump has thrown his political support behind Paxton, and Republican organizations have increasingly focused attention and money on the Texas contest. Reuters reported in September that Trump’s campaigning in Texas came as Republican-aligned groups dramatically increased spending against Talarico, demonstrating how important both parties view the race.
Paxton has publicly argued that Talarico will not win Texas. Speaking about the contrast between the two candidates, Paxton told Fox News that once voters see what he considers their major ideological differences, Talarico “will not win Texas.”
Talarico, however, has attracted significant national attention and has sought to build a coalition extending beyond traditional Democratic voters. The Democratic state representative has emphasized economic issues while also defending positions that Republicans have targeted in campaign advertisements. Republicans, meanwhile, have portrayed Talarico as too progressive for Texas and have increasingly made his record a centerpiece of their campaign strategy.
The increased attention itself demonstrates why the contest has become consequential. Texas has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate in decades, but both parties are committing substantial resources to the 2026 race. Recent reporting has also described polling as competitive, although polls represent snapshots of voter opinion rather than guarantees of an election result.
Ultimately, voters—not campaign statements, advertising spending or individual polls—will determine the outcome when ballots are counted. Until then, both campaigns will continue trying to persuade Texans that their candidate is the better choice to represent the state in Washington.
Republicans are confident Talarico will fall short. His campaign believes Texas voters are ready for something different.
Where do you stand?