New Jersey’s Republican frontrunner, Jack Ciattarelli, is gaining momentum just days before the state’s critical June 10 primary—fueling hopes for a major GOP upset in the Democrat stronghold.
With support from President Donald J. Trump and rising voter dissatisfaction with Democrat leadership, Ciattarelli is entering the final stretch of the GOP primary in a commanding position. A newly released poll shows Ciattarelli nearly matching Democrat Mikie Sherrill in favorability statewide—despite lower media coverage and name recognition.
Poll Shows Tight Race as Ciattarelli Challenges Democrat Machine
According to a SurveyUSA poll, 40% of New Jersey voters view Ciattarelli favorably, compared to 41% for Democrat Mikie Sherrill. Sherrill holds a slight edge in unfavorability at 29%, while Ciattarelli is at 36%. However, nearly one-third of voters remain unfamiliar with both candidates, signaling room for Ciattarelli’s message to break through.
The poll, conducted between May 28–30, surveyed 576 likely voters with a margin of error of ±6.1%.
Despite the poll’s opt-in online sample—which liberal outlets may downplay—experts say the results reveal a key dynamic: voters are still forming opinions, and the GOP has a major opportunity to define the race early.
Trump’s Endorsement Energizes the Base
In an exclusive interview on Fox & Friends First, Ciattarelli declared:
“We’re in a commanding position in the primary. I’m honored to have President Trump’s complete and total endorsement. He knows New Jersey is in play—and so do we.”
This endorsement is no small matter. In 2021, Ciattarelli nearly unseated Democrat Governor Phil Murphy—losing by just 3 points. Today, with Biden’s approval tanking and the state’s Democrat support collapsing, the political winds have shifted even further to the right.
Democrats on the Defense as Latino and Working-Class Voters Shift Right
New Jersey has been a Democrat stronghold for decades, but that dominance is unraveling. In 2020, Joe Biden won the state by 16 points. But by 2024, Kamala Harris barely held on—winning by only 6 points, the narrowest Democrat margin in two decades.
Latino voters in North Jersey and working-class communities in South Jersey are abandoning the Democrat Party in droves. It’s a trend that began under President Trump and shows no signs of stopping.
Democratic Primary in Disarray
The Democrat primary is turning into a chaotic contest. Sherrill leads with just 28%, while Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop, and Rep. Josh Gottheimer are stuck at 11% each. A May 11–13 Emerson College poll of 386 likely Democrat voters (±4.9% margin) highlights the party’s fragmentation.
Even Democrat-friendly analysts admit the candidates lack statewide recognition. Political scientist Dan Cassino notes:
“Sherrill is known in her district, but millions of voters across New Jersey don’t know who she is.”
Republicans Eye Flip as Biden’s Agenda Fails
Democrats may still hold a registration advantage in the state, but enthusiasm is with the GOP. Voters 50 and older—especially homeowners, taxpayers, and small business owners—are fed up with high taxes, soft-on-crime policies, and the radical agendas pushed by Democrat elites in Trenton and Washington.
The Cook Political Report currently rates the New Jersey governor’s race as “Leans Democrat”—but that rating reflects old data and outdated assumptions. In reality, Republican momentum is building.
Bottom Line: Ciattarelli Has the Momentum. New Jersey Is in Play.
Jack Ciattarelli’s strong polling numbers, high favorability, and endorsement from President Trump are energizing conservative voters across the state. If GOP turnout remains strong and Democrats remain divided, New Jersey could deliver a shocking result in November.
With Biden’s approval collapsing and traditional Democrat voting blocs breaking away, the road is wide open for a Republican victory in a state long written off by the political class.
The general election will be held Tuesday, November 4. The primary election is set for Monday, June 10.