President Donald Trump and Republicans could be facing an unexpectedly expensive political battle in Texas as the 2026 midterm elections approach.
Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, is predicting that the increasingly competitive U.S. Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico could become a staggering $200 million contest.
That would turn a Senate seat Republicans once expected to defend comfortably into one of the most expensive and closely watched races in America.
For Trump and the GOP, the concern goes beyond Texas.
If Republicans are forced to pour tens of millions of dollars into protecting a traditionally red state, those are resources that may not be available for other critical Senate battlegrounds.
Ted Cruz Warns Texas Senate Race Will Be Expensive
Cruz addressed the growing Republican challenge during an appearance Monday on “CBS Mornings.”
Despite predicting that Paxton will ultimately win, Cruz made clear that Republicans should not underestimate the race.
“I think we’re going to win this race, but it is a real fight,” Cruz said.
When CBS News correspondent Major Garrett asked whether the contest could cost $100 million, Cruz offered an even larger number.
“$200 million,” he responded.
“It’s going to be expensive,” Cruz added.
The prediction illustrates how dramatically the political landscape has changed in Texas.
Republicans have dominated statewide elections for decades, but Democrats now believe they have a legitimate opportunity to make the 2026 Texas Senate election competitive.
Trump-Backed Ken Paxton Faces Major General Election Test
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton captured the Republican Senate nomination after defeating longtime Sen. John Cornyn in a contentious May runoff.
Cornyn had represented Texas in the U.S. Senate for more than two decades.
The Republican primary became an extraordinarily expensive political battle and exposed divisions inside the Texas GOP before Trump endorsed Paxton shortly before the runoff.
Paxton won the nomination, but Republicans now face the challenge of bringing the party back together before November.
Cruz acknowledged that the primary battle left its mark.
“Ken Paxton just came out of a rough primary,” Cruz said.
After enduring such a heavy barrage of negative advertising, it’s natural for a candidate to emerge from a primary somewhat politically battered.
Cruz says he plans to campaign with Paxton and use his political operation to help the Republican nominee.
That assistance could become increasingly important if Democrats continue pouring money into the race.
James Talarico Gives Democrats Hope In Texas
Democratic nominee James Talarico is a Texas state representative and Presbyterian seminarian who describes himself as a progressive Christian.
Talarico defeated Rep. Jasmine Crockett, D-Texas, and other Democratic candidates in the March primary, securing enough support to avoid a runoff.
Democrats now hope he can accomplish something their party has failed to do in Texas for decades.
The last time Texas voters sent a Democrat to the U.S. Senate was in 1988, when Lloyd Bentsen secured another term.
Even more significantly, Democrats have gone more than three decades without winning a statewide election in Texas.
Those numbers demonstrate the enormous historical advantage Republicans still possess.
But recent developments suggest the GOP cannot simply take the seat for granted.
Texas Senate Race Moves Into Toss-Up Territory
Recent polling has shown Talarico either narrowly ahead of Paxton or running roughly even with the Republican nominee.
The Cook Political Report delivered another warning to Republicans when it shifted the race from “Lean Republican” to “Toss Up.”
That change immediately raised the national stakes.
Texas has traditionally been viewed as a Republican stronghold, meaning GOP campaign organizations could concentrate much of their money on genuine swing states.
A competitive Texas Senate race changes that calculation.
Instead of spending almost entirely on offense elsewhere, Republicans could be forced to devote substantial resources to defending their own territory.
Why The Texas Senate Race Could Cost $200 Million
Texas is an exceptionally expensive state for political campaigns.
Candidates must reach voters across 20 media markets, including some of the largest metropolitan areas in the United States.
Television advertising, digital campaigns, voter outreach, travel and grassroots organizing across such an enormous state can quickly drive campaign costs higher.
But there is another reason the money matters.
The Texas Senate race could help determine which party controls the U.S. Senate after the 2026 midterm elections.
Republicans now control 53 seats in the Senate, meaning Democrats would have to pick up four seats overall while also holding onto their own competitive seats to take the majority.
That means Republicans can hardly afford an upset in Texas.
A $200 Million Problem For The GOP?
The biggest political danger may not necessarily be losing Texas.
It could be how much Republicans must spend to prevent that from happening.
National GOP organizations have limited resources and multiple Senate races demanding attention.
If Texas requires tens of millions of dollars in additional Republican spending, Democrats could benefit in other battleground states where those resources otherwise might have been deployed.
That makes Talarico’s fundraising strength especially important.
Even if Democrats ultimately fall short in Texas, forcing Republicans into a massive defensive spending campaign could have consequences elsewhere on the Senate map.
Trump helped Paxton through the Republican primary with his endorsement. Now the challenge is making sure conservative voters reunite behind the GOP nominee in November.
Cruz Targets Talarico’s Progressive Record
Republicans appear ready to make Talarico’s political record a central issue in the general election.
Cruz argued that many Texans still do not know much about the Democratic nominee or the positions he has taken as a state lawmaker.
“Very few voters actually know his record,” Cruz said, describing Talarico’s political views as “really extreme.”
He then drew a contrast Republicans are likely to repeat throughout the campaign.
“He would be a great candidate in California,” Cruz said. “He’s not a great candidate in Texas.”
That message offers a preview of the GOP strategy.
Paxton and Republican allies are expected to focus heavily on Talarico’s positions on cultural, social and economic issues while arguing that his progressive record is out of step with mainstream Texas voters.
Democrats are preparing a very different attack.
They are expected to emphasize Paxton’s past legal controversies and the divisions created by his bitter Republican primary against Cornyn.
Trump And Republicans Have A Lot Riding On Texas
Texas becoming a major Senate battleground was not the scenario Republicans wanted heading into the final months before the midterms.
The state has been one of the GOP’s most important political strongholds, and Republicans have repeatedly defeated well-funded Democratic attempts to break their statewide winning streak.
But 2026 could require Republicans to fight harder — and spend considerably more — than expected.
For Trump, maintaining a Republican Senate majority could be critical to advancing his agenda during the final two years of his term.
Losing Senate control would give Democrats significantly greater power to challenge the administration and complicate Republican legislative priorities.
That makes Paxton’s race more than a Texas political contest.
It is becoming part of the national battle over Trump’s presidency and control of Washington.
Cruz still believes Republicans will win.
But his $200 million estimate sends an unmistakable warning: Democrats are making Republicans fight for Texas, and keeping the Lone Star State red could come with an enormous price tag.
With control of the Senate potentially hanging in the balance, the Texas showdown between Ken Paxton and James Talarico could become one of the biggest — and most expensive — political fights of the 2026 midterm elections.