A new Texas Senate poll is giving Democrats fresh optimism in one of the country’s most closely watched races, showing Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton narrowly trailing Democratic challenger James Talarico just months before Election Day.
The latest survey is drawing national attention because Texas has long been considered a Republican stronghold. While the race remains extremely close, the numbers suggest both parties are preparing for what could become one of the most expensive and competitive Senate contests of the 2026 election cycle.
New Texas Poll Shows Tight Senate Race
According to a survey conducted by the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University, Talarico received 47% support from likely Texas voters, while Paxton earned 45%.
Another 6% of voters remain undecided, with 2% backing another candidate. Because the poll’s margin of error is 2.83 percentage points, political analysts caution that the race is effectively tied.
Still, the results are another sign that Democrats believe they have a legitimate opportunity to compete in a state Republicans have dominated for decades.
Ken Paxton Faces Favorability Challenge
The survey also measured how voters view both candidates personally.
Talarico posted nearly even favorability numbers, with 46% viewing him favorably and 47% unfavorably.
Paxton, however, faced steeper headwinds. Just 39% of respondents viewed him favorably, while 57% held an unfavorable opinion. Only a small percentage of voters said they were unfamiliar with either candidate.
Those numbers could become a major issue as the campaign enters its final months.
Second Poll Shows Similar Trend
The Texas Southern University poll follows another recent survey from Fox News that also placed Talarico ahead by a narrow margin.
While individual polls can vary, two consecutive surveys showing the Democrat leading have increased attention on the race and fueled speculation that Texas could become one of the nation’s biggest political battlegrounds this fall.
Political forecasting outlet Decision Desk HQ currently rates the contest as a toss-up while still giving Paxton a slight advantage heading toward November.
Trump Backed Paxton During GOP Primary
Paxton secured the Republican nomination earlier this year after defeating longtime Senator John Cornyn in a hard-fought primary runoff.
President Donald Trump endorsed Paxton during the campaign, providing a significant boost that helped him win the nomination.
Trump has comfortably carried Texas in all three of his presidential elections, and many Republican strategists believe his support will once again prove critical in motivating conservative voters.
With Trump expected to remain actively involved in key Senate races across the country, Republicans believe his influence could ultimately help Paxton overcome the close polling.
Democrats Focus On Past Controversies
Democrats continue to make Paxton’s legal and political controversies a central part of their campaign message.
In 2023, the Texas House voted to impeach Paxton on allegations that included corruption and bribery. The Texas Senate later acquitted him, allowing him to remain in office.
Although Republicans argue the impeachment effort was politically motivated, Democrats continue pointing to the episode as they attempt to persuade independent voters.
Meanwhile, Talarico has focused his campaign on presenting himself as a fresh alternative capable of attracting moderate and independent Texans.
Trump Job Approval Also Included
The same survey also asked voters about President Trump’s standing in Texas.
According to the poll, 44% of likely voters said they viewed Trump favorably, while 55% expressed an unfavorable opinion.
Political observers note that presidential approval ratings often influence down-ballot races, making Trump’s popularity an important factor as Republicans work to defend the Senate seat.
Republicans Still Confident About Texas
Despite the recent polling, many Republicans remain confident that Texas will stay in GOP hands.
The state has consistently voted Republican in statewide elections for decades, and conservatives argue that polling this far from Election Day often fails to capture eventual Republican turnout.
Campaign spending is expected to increase dramatically over the coming months as both parties invest millions of dollars into television advertising, digital outreach, and voter mobilization efforts.
With control of the U.S. Senate remaining a top priority for both parties, the Texas race is expected to receive national attention through Election Day.
Although recent polls have created new momentum for Democrats, Republicans believe Texas’ conservative voting history, President Trump’s endorsement, and strong turnout among GOP voters will ultimately determine who wins one of the most important Senate races in America.