President Donald Trump is losing ground in seven of eight states that Canadian officials have identified as politically important to his support base, according to recent Civiqs polling.
The shift comes as the United States and Canada remain locked in a widening trade dispute that is affecting businesses, exporters and consumers on both sides of the border.
The polling does not prove that the trade fight caused Trump’s declining numbers. However, the timing is drawing attention because several of the affected states have major economic ties to Canada and could feel the impact of tariffs more directly than other parts of the country.
Ontario Premier Doug Ford previously urged Canada to consider targeting politically important U.S. states with retaliatory trade measures if Washington continued escalating tariffs.
The latest numbers suggest that Trump is facing a more difficult political environment in most of the states Ford highlighted.
Trump Loses Ground In Seven States
Civiqs polling shows Trump’s net approval rating declining in Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Missouri, Montana, Texas and Wisconsin.
Iowa was the only state among the eight where Trump’s net rating improved.
Arkansas still gives Trump a positive approval rating, but his advantage has narrowed.
His net rating there fell from approximately plus 12 points in late August to plus 7 in the latest reading.
Approval stood near 50 percent, while approximately 43 percent disapproved.
Florida saw a similar decline.
Trump’s net rating there moved from roughly minus 9 to minus 14, with about 40 percent approving of his job performance and 54 percent disapproving.
Montana also weakened, moving from a positive four-point rating to roughly even, with approval and disapproval both near 46 percent.
Alabama declined by several points, while Wisconsin, Missouri and Texas also moved in a less favorable direction for the president.
Five States Show Negative Net Approval
Among the eight states identified by Ford, Trump is now underwater in five.
Those states are Texas, Wisconsin, Florida, Iowa and Missouri.
Texas shows the largest deficit among the group, followed by Wisconsin and Florida.
The numbers are politically significant because presidential approval can influence the broader environment surrounding House and Senate races.
However, presidential approval does not automatically determine how voters will behave in individual congressional contests.
Candidate quality, local economic conditions, campaign spending and regional issues can all affect the final result.
Iowa Breaks The Pattern
Iowa was the lone exception.
Trump’s approval rating there increased to approximately 43 percent while disapproval stood near 55 percent.
That improved his net rating from roughly minus 17 to minus 12.
The difference underscores how differently voters can respond from state to state, even when those states are exposed to many of the same national political and economic issues.
National Approval Remains Weak
Trump’s state-level struggles are occurring against a difficult national backdrop.
Civiqs’ national tracker has recently shown approval in the mid-30 percent range, with disapproval around 60 percent among registered voters.
That does not mean every poll will show the same result.
Polling organizations use different methodologies, sample sizes and weighting systems, and individual state estimates can move more quickly than national numbers.
For that reason, long-term trends across several surveys generally provide more context than any single poll.
Still, the Civiqs numbers add to broader evidence that Trump is entering the final stretch of the midterm campaign with significant voter dissatisfaction.
Trade Fight Raises Economic Stakes
The political pressure comes as the U.S.-Canada trade dispute intensifies.
Washington has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian goods, while Ottawa has responded with measures affecting American products.
The economic consequences are especially important in states that rely heavily on exports to Canada.
Several of the states identified by Ford send billions of dollars in goods across the northern border every year.
That makes tariffs a direct business issue for manufacturers, farmers, energy producers and other industries.
Texas Has The Largest Exposure
Texas has the largest dollar exposure among the eight states.
The state exported nearly $35 billion in goods to Canada in 2025, making Canada one of its most important international markets.
Wisconsin exported approximately $7.6 billion in goods to Canada.
Missouri exported about $6.7 billion.
Florida exported roughly $5.6 billion.
Iowa sent approximately $5 billion in goods to Canada, representing a substantial portion of the state’s total exports.
Alabama exported around $4.3 billion, while Arkansas sent approximately $1.3 billion north of the border.
Nearly half of Montana’s exports were reportedly destined for Canada.
These economic relationships help explain why the trade dispute is receiving increased attention in states where jobs and local industries depend on cross-border commerce.
Why Doug Ford Identified These States
Ford named Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Iowa, Missouri, Montana, Texas and Wisconsin in an August letter calling for a tougher Canadian response to additional U.S. tariffs.
He described them as politically important states connected to the administration’s base.
Ford argued that Canada should consider a coordinated response if Washington continued increasing trade barriers.
He also suggested using Canadian energy, electricity and critical minerals as negotiating leverage.
Ford cannot personally impose national tariffs.
Trade policy is controlled by the Canadian federal government, meaning Ottawa ultimately decides whether to adopt broader retaliatory measures.
His proposal nevertheless showed that some Canadian officials view economic pressure as a way to influence the political debate inside the United States.
Tariffs Could Affect Household Costs
The central economic debate is whether tariffs ultimately help or hurt American consumers and businesses.
Supporters of Trump’s strategy argue that tariffs can protect domestic industries, encourage companies to manufacture more products in the United States and strengthen Washington’s position during trade negotiations.
Critics argue that tariffs can increase costs when American companies pay more for imported goods, components and raw materials.
Those additional costs can sometimes be passed on to consumers.
The effect varies widely depending on the industry, product and availability of alternative suppliers.
That makes trade policy especially important during an election year when affordability remains a major concern for many households.
Canada Expands Talks With Europe
At the same time, Canada is seeking deeper economic relationships outside the United States.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen recently proposed exploring a closer relationship between Canada and the European Union.
The idea has included discussion of Canada potentially becoming the first country with a new form of EU “associate membership.”
Such a category does not currently exist as a standard membership arrangement.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has also said his government is not seeking traditional EU membership.
Instead, Canada is pursuing what Carney has described as a deeper and more customized partnership with Europe.
The discussions include trade, defense, energy, critical minerals, technology and Arctic security.
Canada Diversifies Its Economic Partnerships
The negotiations with Europe could become significant if Canada continues trying to reduce its economic dependence on the United States.
For decades, the U.S. has been Canada’s dominant trading partner.
A prolonged tariff conflict could give Canadian leaders additional incentives to build stronger commercial relationships with Europe and other international markets.
That would not eliminate Canada’s dependence on U.S. trade, but it could gradually change the balance of its economic strategy.
Other Polls Show Concern About Tariffs
Additional polling has also shown skepticism toward higher tariffs on Canadian goods.
Recent surveys have found substantial opposition to tariff increases and concern that trade restrictions could raise costs for American households.
Tariffs are also becoming an increasingly important campaign issue heading toward the midterm elections.
For voters, however, trade is only one issue among many.
Inflation, jobs, immigration, public safety, foreign policy and energy prices are also likely to influence how Americans vote.
White House Defends Trump’s Strategy
The White House has defended Trump’s economic policies and argued that his 2024 election victory demonstrated strong public support for his agenda.
Administration officials maintain that tariffs and other economic policies are intended to rebuild American manufacturing, protect domestic workers and secure better trade agreements.
The White House has also argued that many of the long-term benefits of the administration’s economic program will take time to appear.
That argument is likely to remain central to Republican messaging heading into the midterms.
Democrats, meanwhile, are expected to focus heavily on prices, tariffs and public dissatisfaction with the economy.
Midterms Raise The Stakes
The latest Civiqs polling does not establish why Trump has lost ground in seven of the eight states identified by Ford.
It also does not prove that the U.S.-Canada trade dispute is responsible.
What the numbers do show is that Trump’s approval has weakened across several states with important economic relationships with Canada.
That creates another challenge for the White House and Republican candidates as the midterms approach.
If economic concerns intensify, voters in trade-dependent states could become an increasingly important part of the national political debate.
For now, the central question is whether Trump’s approval numbers stabilize as his economic policies continue taking effect—or whether dissatisfaction continues spreading in states that have traditionally been important to Republican success.