President Donald Trump received unexpected but welcome news on Friday as a new national poll revealed a sharp improvement in his approval rating among Hispanic and Latino voters, a voting bloc that could prove decisive in the 2026 midterm elections.
The latest Emerson College survey shows Trump making significant gains with Hispanic and Latino voters compared to just one month ago—an eye-opening shift that challenges long-standing political assumptions and raises fresh questions about the Democratic Party’s path forward.
Trump Approval Jumps Dramatically With Hispanic Voters
According to the poll, Trump’s net approval rating among Hispanic and Latino voters now stands at just minus 2.1 points, a massive improvement from minus 29.7 points in December 2025.
In the new survey:
- 43.3 percent of Hispanic and Latino voters approve of Trump’s job performance
- 45.4 percent disapprove
That represents a dramatic turnaround in a very short period of time.
Just weeks earlier, nearly 58 percent of Hispanic voters disapproved of Trump, while only 28 percent approved—making Friday’s numbers especially striking.
A Once-Reliable Democrat Voting Bloc Is Now in Play
Hispanic and Latino voters became one of the most important swing demographics in the 2024 presidential election. While Democrats had relied on overwhelming support from this group for decades, that advantage narrowed sharply.
Exit polling showed Kamala Harris winning Hispanic voters by only five percentage points, a collapse in margins that helped Trump carry key battleground states such as Arizona and Nevada, while strengthening Republican performance in Florida and Texas.
Those results stunned Democratic strategists and signaled a potential realignment that could reshape national elections.
What the Latest Emerson Poll Found
The Emerson College poll surveyed 1,000 likely voters nationwide from January 17–19, 2026, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Among all voters:
- 43 percent approve of Trump’s job performance
- 51 percent disapprove
That gives Trump a national net rating of minus 8 points, even as his numbers improve within key voter groups.
Other Polls Show Mixed Results
Not every survey shows the same movement, highlighting how volatile demographic polling can be.
A recent YouGov/Economist poll placed Trump’s net approval among Hispanic voters at minus 15 points, while a New York Times/Siena College poll reported 59 percent disapproval among the same group.
However, polling experts routinely caution that subgroup samples can vary widely and often lag behind broader voting trends—especially with rapidly shifting coalitions.
A Clear Long-Term Trend Toward Republicans
Despite mixed short-term polling, the long-term trend among Hispanic and Latino voters favors Republicans.
- 2016: Trump won 28% of Hispanic voters
- 2020: Trump improved to 32%
- 2024: Trump surged to 46%, nearly winning the group outright
That steady movement has become one of the most important political developments of the past decade.
Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball noted that foreign policy issues—particularly Venezuela—ranked as the top issue among Hispanic voters in the survey. Hispanic respondents approved of Trump’s actions on Venezuela by a 44% to 37% margin.
Trump Pushes Back on Media Polling
Following the release of less favorable polling from legacy media outlets, Trump criticized what he called biased and misleading surveys, pointing to past elections where polls significantly underestimated his support.
As the 2026 midterm elections approach, approval ratings—especially among swing voters—will remain under intense scrutiny. Whether Democrats can reverse their losses with Hispanic voters may determine control of Congress.
For now, Friday’s numbers offer something Republicans rarely hear from national polling headlines: clear, measurable progress in a voter group once considered out of reach.