Texas Republicans are sounding the alarm over a bruising Senate primary that could hand Democrats their best shot in decades to flip a deep-red seat. With the 2026 elections looming, party leaders are preparing to spend tens of millions to protect Senator John Cornyn — fearing Attorney General Ken Paxton could be a costly and risky nominee.
Texas Senate Race 2026: GOP Fears Expensive Fight
Cornyn’s senior adviser, Matt Mackowiak, told Newsweek it would be “political malpractice” for Republicans to risk spending over $200 million defending Texas in the general election because of a vulnerable nominee. He stressed that Cornyn has a 99.2% record of voting with President Trump and a clear “plan to win” in March’s GOP primary.
The Senate Leadership Fund — the GOP’s main super PAC — estimates Cornyn’s primary could cost $70 million to secure. But if Paxton wins, defending Texas from Democrat Colin Allred could run up a staggering $250 million price tag.
Paxton Popular with Grassroots, But Polls Show Trouble
Paxton is beloved by many grassroots conservatives for his battles against the Biden administration and left-wing prosecutors. But his legal troubles and ethics scandals are fueling fears he could hand Democrats an opening.
Recent polling tells the story:
- Cornyn vs. Allred → Cornyn leads by up to 6 points.
- Paxton vs. Allred → Paxton trails in some polls and barely leads in others.
- A GOP survey from Brad Parscale shows Paxton losing by 15 points in a head-to-head matchup.
Democrats See Rare Opportunity to Flip Texas
Texas hasn’t sent a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1988 or voted Democrat for president since 1976. But Democrats are pointing to 2018, when Ted Cruz nearly lost to Beto O’Rourke, as proof the right candidate can compete.
Allred is already campaigning hard, pushing a liberal agenda on government spending and “anti-corruption” reforms. He’s painting Cornyn and Paxton as part of a “broken Washington” — and he’s drawing national Democrat donors eager to make Texas competitive.
Trump’s Endorsement Could Decide It All
President Trump, who won Texas by 13 points in 2024, says he likes both men and will decide “down the line” whether to endorse. In a state where his support can make or break a race, that decision could be the game-changer.
Key Date for Texas Voters
The Texas GOP primary is set for March 3, 2026. If Republicans unite behind a strong nominee, Texas stays red. But a bitter primary fight — and a flawed nominee — could turn a safe seat into a Democrat target.
Bottom Line: Texas is still Republican country, but Democrats smell blood. If the GOP missteps in this primary, they may find themselves fighting a $250 million battle to keep Texas red.