President Donald Trump is facing a potentially troubling shift in public opinion as a new national poll shows his approval rating falling while some of the voters who helped return him to the White House are showing signs of frustration.
The latest UMass Amherst Poll puts Trump’s overall job approval at just 32%, with 64% disapproving of his performance.
But for Republicans looking ahead to the 2026 midterm elections, the bigger story may be what is happening inside Trump’s own political coalition.
Support among Republicans and voters who backed Trump in 2024 has weakened, raising questions about whether concerns over the economy, rising household expenses and the ongoing war with Iran could become a problem for the GOP at the ballot box.
Trump Losing Ground With Republican Voters
The UMass Amherst survey found Trump’s approval among Republicans has fallen from 89% in April 2025 to 75% today — a 14-point decline.
His approval among voters who supported him in the 2024 presidential election has also dropped by 10 percentage points.
Those numbers do not suggest Trump’s conservative base has abandoned him. He continues to enjoy substantial support among Republicans, particularly voters who strongly identify with the MAGA movement.
However, they do suggest dissatisfaction is beginning to reach beyond Democrats and other voters who were already opposed to the president.
That could matter considerably with control of Congress at stake this November.
Some Trump Voters Now Having Second Thoughts
One of the most striking findings involves the Americans who actually voted for Trump in 2024.
According to the poll, 21% of Trump voters now express some degree of second thoughts about their decision, while 16% say they would change their 2024 vote if they had the opportunity.
Confidence in that vote has fallen as well.
In April 2025, 74% of Trump voters said they were “very confident” they had made the right choice. That figure has now dropped to 58%.
Still, the numbers require some perspective.
This is not a mass abandonment of Trump. Most of the people who supported him in 2024 continue to stand behind their decision, and his strongest MAGA supporters remain considerably more favorable toward his presidency.
But in an era of extremely close national elections, Republicans may not need to lose a huge percentage of voters for the political consequences to become significant.
Gas, Groceries and Household Costs Take Center Stage
The economy appears to be one of Trump’s biggest challenges.
Americans continue to feel pressure from the cost of gasoline, groceries, utilities, housing and other everyday necessities.
Those pocketbook concerns are particularly important politically because Trump returned to office after campaigning heavily on affordability and promising Americans relief from high prices.
The continuing war with Iran has further complicated that message.
The UMass survey found widespread concern that the conflict has contributed to higher gas and grocery prices, creating a direct connection in many voters’ minds between foreign policy and their household budgets.
For families trying to stretch retirement savings, pay utility bills, fill up their vehicles or keep grocery costs under control, Washington’s economic statistics can matter less than what they actually pay each week.
That puts additional pressure on the administration to convince Americans that conditions are moving in the right direction.
Iran War Creates Another Political Challenge
Trump’s handling of the war with Iran is also receiving poor marks.
The UMass poll found 68% of respondents viewed Trump’s handling of the conflict negatively, while only about one-quarter said he was handling it well.
There is considerably more support among Trump’s strongest MAGA voters, highlighting an important divide within the Republican coalition.
Trump and his supporters have argued that confronting Iran is necessary to protect America’s national security and prevent Tehran from becoming a greater threat.
But as the conflict continues, the political question is increasingly becoming whether voters believe the results justify the economic and military costs.
Other Polls Show Trump Under Pressure
UMass Amherst is not alone in finding Trump’s approval near a low point.
Reuters/Ipsos polling in August also placed the president’s approval at 33%.
That survey similarly found widespread dissatisfaction surrounding the economy, the cost of living and the conflict with Iran.
Different polls use different methodologies, samples and weighting systems, meaning individual results should always be viewed with some caution.
Polls are snapshots of public opinion — not predictions of what will happen on Election Day.
Still, when several major surveys begin identifying similar weaknesses, political campaigns tend to pay attention.
Why This Matters for the 2026 Midterms
Trump will not personally be on the ballot this November, but Republican control of Congress could depend partly on whether his voters remain enthusiastic enough to turn out.
Midterm elections traditionally present challenges for the president’s party, making enthusiasm among the Republican base particularly important.
A voter does not necessarily have to switch parties to hurt Republicans.
If frustrated Trump supporters simply stay home, Republican candidates in competitive House and Senate races could feel the consequences.
There is still time for the political environment to change.
An improvement in household finances, lower gas prices, progress toward ending the Iran conflict or other major developments could change public attitudes before Election Day.
Trump has also repeatedly demonstrated that his political support can be more durable than conventional political wisdom suggests.
For now, however, the latest polling presents Republicans with a warning sign they cannot easily ignore.
Trump’s strongest MAGA supporters remain firmly in his corner. The bigger question is whether Republicans, independents and less committed Trump voters who have grown dissatisfied will come back — and whether they will show up when control of Congress is decided in November.