President Donald Trump is facing a major political test in Oklahoma, where Republican voters are preparing to decide a closely watched governor’s race that could offer another measure of his influence inside the GOP.
Trump has endorsed former Oklahoma state Sen. Mike Mazzei in Tuesday’s Republican runoff against state Attorney General Gentner Drummond. The two candidates finished virtually even in the June primary, setting up a head-to-head contest with major implications for Oklahoma Republicans.
The race is attracting national attention because Trump has invested considerable political capital in Mazzei while sharply criticizing Drummond.
For Oklahoma voters, however, the election involves more than presidential endorsements. Jobs, economic development, conservative leadership, government spending and a controversial aluminum project have all emerged as important issues.
Trump Makes A Major Push In Oklahoma
Trump’s endorsement helped transform Mazzei into a serious contender for the Republican nomination.
Mazzei, a former state senator and state budget secretary, entered the campaign against several prominent Republicans competing to replace term-limited Gov. Kevin Stitt.
Drummond had been viewed as one of the strongest candidates in the field. But Trump endorsed Mazzei shortly before the June primary, immediately giving the former state senator a powerful advantage among voters who strongly support the president.
It nearly carried Mazzei to first place.
Drummond narrowly finished ahead, but neither candidate received the majority necessary to avoid a runoff.
Now the crowded field is gone.
Republican voters have a straightforward choice between Mazzei and Drummond, making Tuesday an unusually clear test of Trump’s endorsement power.
Why The Oklahoma Race Matters For Trump
Oklahoma is among the most reliably Republican states in America.
Trump carried the state by overwhelming margins in his presidential campaigns, while Republicans dominate Oklahoma politics at both the state and federal levels.
That makes the runoff particularly noteworthy.
Trump is not attempting to persuade swing voters or Democrats to support his preferred candidate. Instead, he is asking Republican primary voters in a deeply conservative state to choose Mazzei over another Republican who already holds statewide office.
A Mazzei victory would give Trump another example of his ability to shape Republican primaries.
A Drummond victory would demonstrate that even strongly Republican voters are sometimes willing to break with Trump’s recommendation when deciding state races.
Trump And Drummond Clash Over Major Manufacturing Project
One of the biggest disputes involves a proposed aluminum smelter in Oklahoma.
Trump supports the project, which advocates say could strengthen American manufacturing and expand domestic aluminum production.
Drummond has taken the opposite position.
As Oklahoma attorney general, he filed a lawsuit seeking to block the development. Critics of the project have raised questions about its potential effects on nearby land and residents, along with concerns surrounding the involvement of Dubai-based Emirates Global Aluminum.
Drummond argues that his position reflects his responsibility to protect Oklahoma.
“I respect President Trump and the work he is doing for our country, but we are not going to agree on every issue,” Drummond said.
The attorney general has maintained that protecting Oklahoma’s land, water and residents must come before political considerations.
Mazzei, meanwhile, has backed the project after previously raising concerns about it.
The disagreement has transformed a state economic-development dispute into one of the defining issues of the Republican campaign.
Jobs And American Manufacturing Take Center Stage
The aluminum dispute also raises a broader question facing Republican voters across the country: How should states balance major industrial investments with concerns from local communities?
Supporters of large manufacturing projects argue that America needs greater domestic production capacity, particularly after years of concern about dependence on foreign supply chains.
Trump has made rebuilding American manufacturing a major part of his economic agenda.
But local opposition to the Oklahoma project demonstrates that bringing industrial production back to the United States can create difficult debates over land use, infrastructure and economic development.
That tension has helped make the Oklahoma governor’s race about considerably more than personalities.
Questions Surround Trump Endorsement
Trump’s decision to support Mazzei has also generated controversy.
Mazzei’s campaign reportedly paid nearly $70,000 to longtime Trump ally Roger Stone for consulting services. Critics subsequently questioned whether the relationship had anything to do with Trump’s endorsement.
Mazzei has rejected that suggestion.
His campaign maintains that Trump backed him because of his conservative record and support for the president’s agenda.
Trump has also criticized Drummond on other fronts, including his political history and his level of support for Trump during previous political battles.
Drummond has responded by emphasizing his own conservative credentials while arguing that supporting Trump does not require agreeing with him on every state issue.
A Battle Over The Direction Of The Republican Party
That disagreement may ultimately become one of the most important themes of the election.
Drummond has attempted to present himself as an independent-minded conservative willing to challenge national Republican leaders when he believes Oklahoma’s interests are at stake.
Mazzei has positioned himself as the candidate more closely aligned with Trump’s America First agenda.
For voters, the decision therefore presents two different approaches to Republican leadership.
One emphasizes close cooperation with Trump and his national agenda.
The other argues that conservative state officials should maintain the ability to disagree with Washington when they believe local interests require it.
Bitter Campaign Enters Final Stretch
The runoff has become increasingly contentious as Election Day approaches.
Both candidates recently released drug-test results after the issue entered the campaign.
Mazzei’s reported result was negative, although Drummond questioned whether the testing performed was sufficiently comprehensive.
The unusual controversy is another indication of how competitive the race has become.
With the Republican nomination—and potentially the governor’s mansion—at stake, neither campaign appears willing to surrender ground.
Oklahoma Remains Deeply Republican
Regardless of Tuesday’s result, Oklahoma remains firmly Republican territory.
Trump won the state by more than 30 percentage points in each of his three presidential elections, and Republicans hold tremendous power throughout state government and Oklahoma’s congressional delegation.
The state has also gone years without electing a Democratic governor. Democrat Brad Henry was the last member of his party to win the office, securing reelection in 2006.
That political landscape means the eventual Republican nominee will enter the general election in a strong position.
But Oklahoma’s conservative electorate is not necessarily politically uniform.
Some Republicans closely identify with Trump’s movement, while others consider themselves more traditional conservatives. The runoff could provide valuable insight into which group is more influential heading into the midterm elections.
Trump Has Faced Setbacks In Governor Races
Trump’s endorsement remains one of the most coveted assets in Republican politics, particularly in congressional primaries.
Governor’s races, however, have sometimes produced different results.
Several Trump-backed candidates have fallen short in gubernatorial primaries this election cycle, suggesting voters may evaluate candidates for governor differently from candidates for Congress.
There is a logical reason.
Governors deal directly with issues that affect residents’ everyday lives, including taxes, roads, education, energy, business development, state spending and public safety.
Voters may therefore place greater importance on a candidate’s personal record and positions on local issues rather than relying primarily on national endorsements.
Oklahoma could provide another important example of that distinction.
Another Republican Showdown Looms In South Carolina
Trump’s political influence will also be tested elsewhere Tuesday.
South Carolina Republicans are holding a special U.S. Senate runoff, giving the president another opportunity to demonstrate his influence with GOP voters as the primary calendar moves toward its conclusion.
Together, the races will provide another snapshot of Trump’s ability to shape the Republican Party ahead of the midterm elections.
But Oklahoma may be the more revealing contest.
All Eyes Turn To Oklahoma
Trump has made his preference unmistakable.
He wants Mike Mazzei to become Oklahoma’s next Republican nominee for governor, and he has personally stepped into the race to help make that happen.
Drummond, meanwhile, is asking conservative voters to judge him on his record and his willingness to put Oklahoma’s interests first—even when that means disagreeing with the president.
The choice now belongs to Republican voters.
Tuesday’s result will determine who advances toward the governor’s mansion. It could also answer a much larger political question:
When President Trump puts his endorsement on the line in one of America’s most conservative states, how many Republican voters are still willing to follow his lead?