President Donald Trump delivered a blunt warning this week as the Supreme Court of the United States prepares to rule on the legality of his reciprocal tariff policy—saying “we’re screwed” if the justices side against the administration.
In a post on Truth Social, Trump argued that an adverse ruling could force the federal government to return enormous sums already collected through tariffs over the past year.
According to Trump, the potential refund obligation wouldn’t just reach into the billions—it could explode into the hundreds of billions of dollars almost immediately.
Why Trump Says the Stakes Are So High
The president warned that refunds would be only the beginning.
Trump said foreign governments and multinational corporations have already poured massive investments into U.S. factories, plants, and equipment in response to the tariff policy. If the Supreme Court strikes down the program, those same entities could demand compensation for investments made under the existing rules.
When those costs are added together, Trump said, the financial exposure could reach into the trillions, creating what he described as an economic and administrative disaster.
He rejected claims that refunds could be handled quickly or cleanly, arguing that even determining who gets paid, how much, and when would take years—if it’s even possible at all.
What the Supreme Court Is Deciding
The Supreme Court could issue a ruling as early as Wednesday on whether Trump properly used emergency powers to impose broad tariffs announced last April.
Those tariffs included:
- A 10% baseline tariff on most imported goods
- Higher rates for countries running trade surpluses with the U.S.
Trump has said the policy successfully pressured trading partners to:
- Invest in American manufacturing
- Lower barriers to U.S. exports
- Bring jobs and production back to U.S. soil
Which Tariffs Would Stay in Place
Even if the Court rules against Trump on this specific authority, many other tariffs would remain untouched.
These include:
- Up to 25% tariffs on vehicles and auto parts
- A 10% fentanyl-related tariff on China
- 50% tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper
Those duties were enacted under separate legal authorities and would not be affected by the ruling.
Refunds Could Still Cost Taxpayers Billions
Administration officials say Trump could attempt to reimpose reciprocal tariffs under different legal grounds. However, the federal government could still be required to refund an estimated $150 billion tied to the disputed authority.
The case before the Court challenges whether tariffs imposed under emergency economic powers amount to an unconstitutional tax. If challengers prevail, the administration could be forced into a complex refund process for businesses that paid higher import costs—totaling more than $133 billion as of mid-December.
Treasury Pushes Back on Refund Fears
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent played down concerns in comments to Reuters, saying the Treasury has sufficient cash reserves to manage any repayments if required.
He also questioned whether large corporations that raised prices due to tariffs would actually return money to consumers, suggesting refunds may never reach everyday Americans.
Bessent said any repayment process would likely unfold gradually—over months or even longer—rather than all at once.