Yes
He can.
No
He can’t.
Few economic issues hit American families as visibly as the price displayed on the sign outside their neighborhood gas station.
That’s one reason President Donald Trump and his administration are putting considerable attention on fuel prices as Republicans head toward the 2026 midterm elections.
The administration has taken steps designed to expand gasoline supplies, including an Environmental Protection Agency decision allowing the summer-blend gasoline requirement to end early. The EPA says the move can add hundreds of thousands of barrels of gasoline per day to available domestic supplies.
Trump has also expressed confidence that gasoline prices will decline.
But there is an important complication: Americans have recently been dealing with significantly higher fuel costs, driven in substantial part by disruptions connected to the Iran conflict. Reuters reported in late August that national gasoline prices had climbed above $4 per gallon, roughly $1 higher than a year earlier. Trump has consequently been pressing refiners and fuel retailers for ways to bring prices down.
That creates both an economic and political challenge for Republicans.
Gasoline prices have an unusual ability to influence public perceptions because Americans see them constantly. Motorists don’t need an economist to tell them whether filling their tank has become more expensive—they see the total every time they visit the pump.
If prices fall substantially before Election Day, Republicans could argue that the administration’s energy policies are delivering relief. Democrats, meanwhile, are likely to focus on the fact that consumers have already endured higher energy costs and question how much credit the White House deserves for any decline.
Ultimately, voters will decide whether falling fuel costs—if they materialize—are enough to change their view of the economy and the party controlling Washington.