Could Texas Flip Blue? Don’t Bet on It.
A new statewide poll shows President Donald Trump’s favorability rating has dropped 15 points in Texas, sparking headlines and Democrat hopes. But despite this short-term dip, Texas continues to lean solidly Republican heading into the next election cycle.
Texas 2024 Election: A Deep-Red State in Focus
Texas has long been a Republican stronghold, with voters backing conservative candidates for decades. The last time a Democrat won Texas in a presidential race was Jimmy Carter in 1976.
In the 2024 election, President Trump carried the Lone Star State by nearly 14 percentage points, thanks in part to growing support among Hispanic voters in South Texas—a demographic once considered a Democrat stronghold.
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New Texas Poll Shows 15-Point Favorability Shift
According to a March survey by Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR), Trump’s favorability rating now sits at -3, with 47% of Texans viewing him favorably and 50% unfavorably. That’s a drop from his post-election high of +12 just a few months ago.
Quick Poll Comparison:
- November 2024: 55% favorable, 43% unfavorable (+12 net)
- March 2025: 47% favorable, 50% unfavorable (-3 net)
The number of voters with a “very favorable” view of Trump also dipped slightly from 42% to 37%, a shift that reflects current economic anxieties and media-driven narratives—but not necessarily a long-term trend.
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Other Key Republican Figures Also Under the Microscope
The poll also revealed mixed reviews for several other national conservative figures:
- Vice President JD Vance: -3 favorability
- Elon Musk, now heading the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE): -10 favorability
- Senator John Cornyn (up for reelection in 2026): -22 favorability
- Attorney General Ken Paxton: -5 favorability
Paxton’s numbers, while slightly negative, are notably stronger than Cornyn’s. Many conservatives see Paxton as a possible primary challenger in 2026, especially given his strong grassroots support and legal victories defending Texas sovereignty.
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Democrat Colin Allred Gains Some Ground—But Falls Short of Victory
Former Democratic Congressman Colin Allred, who ran against Senator Ted Cruz in 2024, now has a +7 favorability rating. Despite this, Allred lost to Cruz by 8.4%, and his numbers are still far below what Democrats would need to flip a red state like Texas.
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CNN Analyst: Trump More Popular Now Than in First Term
Even mainstream media has taken note of President Trump’s resilient popularity. On March 25, CNN data analyst Harry Enten remarked:
“All we talk about is how unpopular Donald Trump is, but in reality, he’s more popular now than he was at any point in term number one—and more popular than when he won reelection in November 2024.”
That perspective aligns with what many conservatives already know: polling fluctuates, but Trump’s base remains energized, especially in critical states like Texas.
Texas: Still Red, Still Strong
Texas has 40 Electoral College votes, and if Democrats ever did flip it, the political map would be turned upside down. But based on the 2024 results and current polling trends, such a scenario remains unlikely.
With issues like border security, inflation, trade, and American energy independence on the line, President Trump’s message continues to resonate with everyday Texans.
Conclusion
While Democrats cheer this latest polling shift, it’s far too early to declare Texas competitive. Trump may be down a few points in the latest survey, but in the bigger picture, Texas is still Trump country—and that’s not changing anytime soon.